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For six years, the Internet Nexus served as my technology blog, but I've since started blogging at the SuperSite Blog instead. If you're looking for the blog, please head there. --Paul

Thursday, May 27, 2004

iPod: Leader, but Not Ruler

Business Week: "Apple's digital-music player is a bona fide hit. But analysts' belief that it commands 25% of the global market may be overblown ... Although no one monitors overall international numbers, most analysts have assumed Apple has well over 25% of worldwide digital-music player sales. They base that view on Apple's strength in those three key markets. Too bad their assumption is off base: The iPod's global market share may actually fall well below the 25% mark ... An April, 2004, report from investment bank CIBC on this market estimated global sales of flash and hard-drive music players at 17 million. If that's true, then the 1.5 million iPods sold in 2003 gives Apple 8% to 10% of the global market. In fact, SigmaTel alone sold 9 million chips specifically designed for rival digital-music players, dwarfing iPod sales ... The CIBC report estimates that unit sales of flash and hard-drive players will grow 85% in 2004, to 31.5 million. Apple sold just over 800,000 iPods in its second fiscal quarter, ended Mar. 27 -- usually its slowest quarter. So even if Apple only matches the 800,000 number for the next three quarters, it will sell 3.2 million iPods. This represents a 113% growth rate and a world market share of just over 10% ... A quick look at the big picture shows that Apple has yet to achieve dominance in the sector, despite the hype."

[ Posted at 10:38 AM | Permalink ]