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About this site

For six years, the Internet Nexus served as my technology blog, but I've since started blogging at the SuperSite Blog instead. If you're looking for the blog, please head there. --Paul



Wednesday, October 03, 2007

8 Reasons Windows Users Don't Switch

Steven Leigh at AppleMatters makes up a nice, logical list that should be at the forefront of the mind of anyone concerned about whether Apple will continue gaining market share at Microsoft's expense. My feeling, frankly, is that the Mac has to plateau at some point, unless some of these issues are addressed:
Experienced Mac users may not have the perspective that it takes to see what makes Windows users stay with Microsoft, and let’s face it, some Mac users (not you or me, of course) are just downright zealots.

4. Price
The perception by Windows users is that Macs are more expensive than Windows PCs. This may have been true in the past, but the new Macs are very comparably priced to similarly equipped PCs. Unfortunately, the perception remains.
Well. Actually, the truth remains: Macs are more expensive than PCs, they still are. Yes, Macs are often comparably priced to similar PCs. The problem is that PCs come in many, many more price points, and unlike with Apple, PC users are used to choosing exactly what they want and getting it. This is a key differentiator that Mac fans often overlook. If you want to spend $1500-2000 on a PC, the iMac is competitive. But if you want to spend $500, there's a decent PC out there for you. The same is not true on the Mac side. It just isn't.
5. Lies
Let’s face it: Apple tends to bend the truth once in a while, especially about Microsoft and Windows.
Yep. This one and number 6, Windows Bashing, are essentially the same thing.
I remember watching the 20 or 30 minute Vista-bashing session at the WWDC conference and wondering why Steve Jobs is so insecure that he has to berate the opposition. Can you imagine shopping for a car and having the salesman only talk about what’s wrong with the competition’s cars?
Brilliantly put.
8. Mac Users
Okay, I’m not talking about you or me here, but there are some Mac users out there who have just a little too much love for Apple. When they are shouting (or typing in all caps) about how much better Macs are, they’re not convincing anyone to switch, they are scaring them away.
This is, quite possibly, the biggest problem facing the Mac community. You may not realize how serious this is. But consider this:

Mac fanatics are like Detroit car lobbyists. They've spent decades doing nothing but propping up the Mothership, all for what they think is a good cause, but all they've really done is harmed the thing they love so much. People understand quality, and that's why so many are swayed by Apple's products. People also understand bullying, and that's why so many ignore Apple's products.

The good news? We're already at the point with the iPod family that the vast majority of users are not Apple sycophants but rather normal consumers. And they're not concerned with the same issues that plague the fanatics. On the Mac, it's finally getting there too: As Apple gains market share each quarter, the percentage of crazies goes down just a bit. Pretty soon, they're the minority. They're still a loud minority. But they're a minority.

Don't let the crazy people ruin the Mac, or the iPod, or the iPhone, and shout down the people who are honest enough to point out problems where they exist. That's just silly, and while Apple's fanatics might have been desirable or even necessary during the rebuilding years, now they're just dead weight. Good riddance, I say.

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Zune 2.0 coverage on the SuperSite

Sorry for the delay since my last post here: Between traveling for the last week and starting up the new SuperSite blog, I've been a bit busy. Plus there hasn't been much going on in the Apple world, though I'm now looking at both Microsoft Office 2008 and Leopard for future write-ups. In any event, I've posted a bunch of content about the new Zunes that should be of interest. My take on this is that Microsoft will indeed by the solid number two behind Apple in the portable player market by the beginning of 2008. Things are getting interesting.

Zune 2 Preview
Zune 2 Photo Gallery
Microsoft Reveals 2nd Gen Zune, DRM-Free Music Plans (News)
Some thoughts on Zune 2.0 (Blog posting)
A Zune follow-up (Blog posting)

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Thursday, September 20, 2007

iPod touch arrives

... and ahead of schedule at that. Here are some shots, including some that compare the size of the touch to the iPhone.

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Wil Shipley wakes up to Apple lock-in

Delicious Monster author Wil Shipley wakes up to what I've been complaining about for quite some time now:
The iPhone is a closed system, like the iPods before it, so third parties can only develop software for it if they are EXTREMELY close to Apple. This is an incredibly frightening trend. As Apple gets more and more of its revenue from non-Mac devices, they are also getting more and more of their revenue from devices that simply exclude third parties.

On iPods, Airports, Apple TVs, and now iPhones, Apple wants every app perfect. Which is nice, in theory. In practice, it means innovation only happens at Apple's pace. The marketplace of ideas is much smaller, and the devices are much poorer because of it. (Example: Why can't I stream music from my iPhone or iPod touch to my Airport Express?)

[With] the latest iPods Apple [have] gone a step further, and disabled some docking stations that don't have a special chip in them provided by Apple; forcing customers to use only Apple-approved accessories. Apple's emulating the most pernicious qualities of Nintendo and the Microsoft XBox -- you pay us a tax or you don't work with our systems.

Apple's "approval" just comes from Apple getting a cut. It's a measure of greed, not quality. We're not talking about THX-certification here, we're talking about extortion. This kind of lock-in seems very appealing for the company doing the locking early on, but it always, ALWAYS ends up biting the company in the butt.

Then we come to ringtones. Every phone I've owned in the last ten years has allowed to make my own ringtones. But since Apple is so close to the record companies, and they are already so grumpy with Apple, Apple did a deal that benefits record companies and Apple. Not artists, certainly not consumers.

A million customers don't get to do something cool with their iPhones. Because of greed.

Now we see that iPod owners who upgrade to a newer iPod must re-buy the games they've already bought, because the new iPods are incompatible with the old. No credit given for having already bought an identical game.

Steve ... give up on trying to control everything. It's only going to keep hurting Apple, more and more, to control content and hardware and software. It's going to make them into the kind of mega-monopoly that we always, ALWAYS end up hating. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. 100% of the time.

Apple should license FairPlay, or allow iPods to play PlaysForSure music. Either one. Basically, Apple should allow other music stores to sell DRM'ed music that works on iPods and iPhones.
Wil, welcome to the party. I'm saddened it took you years and several Apple product release waves and strategy moves to agree that the company is engaged in lock-in at the expense of consumers, but whatever. Here you are.

I'd like to reference again my recent comments about Apple and what should be a very damaging antitrust inquiry if there's any justice in the world. This isn't about "anti-Apple." It's about "pro-consumer." Some don't get this, but people matter more than corporations.

BTW, even John Gruber is seeing this issue pretty clearly now, at least with regards to ringtones:
Faced with the choice between doing what’s right for customers or charging them money for something they shouldn’t need to pay for, Apple chose the latter. There is no middle ground. And any business that hinges on your customers “not knowing any better” is a bad business.
Thanks Jerry.

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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Apple defends iTunes in Berlin, Brussels

Reuters:
Apple President Steve Jobs reiterated his commitment to charging the same price for iTunes downloads across Europe as his lawyers defended the company on Wednesday against allegations its prices are not uniform.

"We think prices should be the same. We think anybody in Europe should buy off any store," Jobs told a press conference in Berlin, which he visited in connection with an iPhone deal.

At the same time, Apple officials were defending the company in Brussels.

The Commission charged in April that Vivendi's Universal Music Group, Sony BMG Music Entertainment, EMI Group and Warner Music Group were forcing Apple to curtail cross-border access to iTunes.
Now that the EU's case against Microsoft was found to be basically flawless, you can expect regulators there to turn their attention to other computer industry near-monopolies, most notably Apple (with the iPod and iTunes) and Google (with online search, or, more appropriately, online advertising). Apple fans are curiously militaristic in their defense of the company along these lines, but bundling is bundling, and if the EU made Microsoft decouple Windows Media Player from Windows, you can pretty much expect the same treatment of the iPod and iTunes.

This issue cited above is, of course, about pricing of music online. But this is how cans of worms get opened. Stay tuned.

Related: Time for Apple to face the music?

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Sunday, September 16, 2007

Is Apple TV an iFlop?

Forbes takes a look at a product Apple seems to have all but ignored since it was first released last year:

iTV is a flat-out iFlop. Renamed Apple TV upon launch, the ballyhooed box has sold perhaps 250,000 units--far behind the 1 million sold for the iPhone, which was priced twice as high and has been on the market less than half as long. Apple ... provides detailed sales data for the iPod and other digital wonders but won't reveal any numbers for Apple TV; apparently the truth is too humiliating.

Jobs' own ambivalence about the iFlop, however, is evident. At a tech conference in May Jobs took the stage and casually dismissed Apple TV as merely "a hobby." In briefing Wall Street on quarterly earnings on July 25, Apple execs ignored the video product.

Jobs confined Apple TV to handling only the content you could get through Apple's own iTunes. This parochial and proprietary approach, in an increasingly open, Internet-infused world, had relegated the company's Macintosh line to a narrow slice of sales. Yet it also had let the iPod dominate online music, which may be why Jobs believed he could pull off the same thing in video. Wrong.

So here's the thing. In the days leading up to the Apple TV's release, I bemoaned the fact that it lacked DVR capabilities and thus could never be real competition for Microsoft's excellent Media Center software (available since 2002) and Media Center Extender hardware (available since 2004). That's still true today, and as I noted in my review of the Apple TV, the device is really just "an iPod designed for your living room instead of your pocket. It is simply yet another way to consume content purchased from Apple's nearly-ubiquitous iTunes Store." I award the thing 3 out of 5 stars and declared that it is "big on hype but short on functionality."

 

But is it a flop?

 

Maybe. I do like the idea of the Apple TV, though again, it's hugely diminished without DVR functionality. If you've completely bought into the Apple digital media ecosystem, it works pretty well. But even then there are limitations: You still can't buy any HD content on iTunes, relegating the box's 720p display capabilities moot. And if you rip your own DVDs to MPEG-4 or H.264 you have some choices to make, as the Apple TV can play back 640 x whatever movies aimed at the iPod, but the reverse isn't true of the slightly higher-resolution movies the Apple TV supports, but the iPod does not. The whole thing is kind of a mess. Technologically, the Apple TV is a mixed bag.

 

If these sales figures are to be believed, the Apple TV is a sales flop as well. If this were Microsoft, we'd all knowingly nod our heads at the notion that the company would simply issue a few upgrades and eventually get it right. But this is Apple, which tends to bolt from defeats, especially the high profile ones, as quickly as possible.And that's a shame, because the Apple TV could have turned into a cool product. For me, the most damning evidence that this will never happen is Jobs himself and his comments about it being "a hobby". It's just too bad.

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Monday, September 10, 2007

Jumping the iShark

The New York Times touches on the topic du jour:
Let me get this straight: Steve Jobs insists that songs on iTunes cost 99 cents and television episodes cost $1.99 because consumers crave simple pricing.

Except, of course, when it comes to Apple’s own products.

There were wrinkles created by all the dynamic pricing. Customers who paid $599 when the iPhone came out two months ago saw their status drop from early adopter to, well, sucker, after Mr. Jobs cut the price of the device by a third. After Mr. Jobs was crucified for playing it too cute on the so-called “Jesus phone,” he issued a non-apology apology and a $100 store credit to help those early buyers salvage some dignity.

A pricing error? Absolutely. And when you think about it, the media companies Mr. Jobs is fighting with want the opportunity to make the same mistake.

Apple saying it would not carry television shows from the coming NBC season because the network wanted double the $1.99 price and NBC saying that was not true.

“Apple is not telling the truth. We never asked to double the wholesale price of our shows," said Cory Shields, a spokesman for NBC Universal. “Our negotiations were centered on our request for flexibility in wholesale pricing, including the ability to package shows together in ways that could make our content even more attractive for consumers.”
This is interesting on a number of levels.

First, the hypocrisy thing is pretty obvious.

Second, that NBC has made its shows available on Amazon Unbox for less than they sold on iTunes is telling.

Finally, the "sucker" comment closely resembles the "stooge" line I used the other day. I guess we're on the same page when it comes to the gotta-have-it gadget crowd and the Monday morning quarterbacking scenario where people have actually argued that they've gotten $200 of value out of the past two months of iPhone use. Egads.

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Sunday, September 09, 2007

How Steve Jobs Lost Control of iPod Launch

Newsweek:

Last Wednesday Jobs donned his costume of black mock turtleneck and jeans-like Olivier dabbing on the greasepaint-and unveiled to a San Francisco crowd of media and employees a bunch of cool stuff. But this time Jobs lost control of his story.

In June, as you can't help but know, the iPhone became Apple's most-hyped product ever, so much so that the company's fate became intertwined with the groundbreaking device.

Before he left the stage, Jobs dropped a bomb: Apple cut the price of the iPhone from $599 to $399. Slashing the price by $100 might have been high-tech business as usual. But slashing the price tag by a third, only two months after hogging high tech's red carpet, was startling. And it became the story of the day. Since reports had been rife that sales of iPhones weren't soaring, some critics opined that this drastic cut was born of desperation. And wouldn't those who bought one at the higher price now feel like suckers?

Jobs ... was making a timely gamble. A lot of people are going to be giving phones as holiday presents, and Apple's research, he says, shows that they want to choose an iPhone but believe it costs too much. Bringing the price down means making the sale. "We have one chance to go out and go for the holiday season," he said to me. "If we don't take that chance, we wait a whole other year. We're willing to make less money to get more iPhones out there." What about people who just bought one for $599? "I feel for them," he said. "But, you know, we're not harming anybody."

(I find it ironic that the same Apple fans who in June were lofting their newly acquired iPhones in the air like they'd won the Stanley Cup are now complaining that they paid too much.)

Then you don't understand the mentality of these people, Mr. Levy. They're proud and defensive about their insular little private club. Now that they've been revealed as stooges, these guys have lost their cachet and thus their sense of self and ego. Not only are millions and millions of people suddenly getting into their club, they're doing so at a vastly reduced price. Imagine buying a Lexus for $40,000 and then watching the company put it on sale for $25,000 two months later. And no, you didn't get $15,000 worth of use out of in two months, delusional self-justification notwithstanding.


Anyway, Levy is right about one thing: The iPhone price cut certainly did overshadow the new iPods. But that's brilliant, because Apple will sell tens of millions of these new iPods this year regardless. Now they can sell millions of iPhone too. Brilliant.

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Friday, September 07, 2007

Configuring the 2007 iPod classic (6G) in iTunes 7.4

Some shots from the install experience:

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Configuring the 2007 iPod nano (3G) in iTunes 7.4

Some shots from the install experience:

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The new iPod classic (6G)

Some hero shots of the new classic:

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The new iPod nano (3G)

Some hero shots of the new nano:

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[ Posted at 1:21 PM | Permalink ]

 

New iPods arrive

More info soon, but here's what arrived this morning:

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[ Posted at 9:51 AM | Permalink ]

 

Wednesday, September 05, 2007

Apple Fall 2007 Products: A Timeline

So it's September 5, 2007 and Apple just announced a bunch of brand new iPods and other related products. But as anyone who waited for an iPod mini back in early 2004 will tell you, an Apple announcement does not a product availability make. (Or, ahem, whatever.) So when can we actually expect to see these new products (in the US)? Here's a timeline.

iPod shuffle
Status: A hold-over from last year, but with new colors
Pricing: $79 ($1 GB)
Availability: Immediate
Apple Store delivery estimate: Within 24 hours, but green version is "not available"

iPod nano
Status: Completely redesigned hardware and software
Pricing: $149 (4 GB), $199 (8 GB)
Availability: This weekend
Apple Store shipping estimate: 1-3 business days

iPod classic
Status: Hardware is held-over from 2005, but with new software UI
Pricing: $249 (80 GB), $349 (160 GB)
Availability: This weekend
Apple Store shipping estimate: 1-3 business days

iPod touch
Status: Completely new model, based on iPhone
Pricing: $299 (8 GB), $399 (16 GB)
Availability: Late this month
Apple Store shipping estimate: By September 28

iPhone
Status: 4 GB model dropped, now just a single model, otherwise unchanged
Pricing: $399 (8 GB)
Availability: Immediate
Apple Store shipping estimate: Within 24 hours

It will be interesting to see how the iPod touch availability, especially, matches Apple's promise. And let's not forget the weird new Starbucks service for the iPod touch and iPhone: According to Apple, that service will debut in New York and Seattle on October 2, 2007, and then be added to 350 Starbucks stores in the San Francisco Bay area on November 7, 2007, then 500 stores in Los Angeles in early February 2008, 300 stores in Chicago in March 2008, and additional markets throughout the US later in 2008. The service will be available throughout the US sometime in 2009.

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First impressions: 'The Beat Goes On' Announcements

While I'll be reviewing Apple's new lineup of iPods on the SuperSite for Windows, I thought it would be interesting to toss out some thoughts about the devices based on the recently completed special event at which they were introduced. As always, the iPod line remains the standard by which all other portable media players are judged, and the Fall 2007 lineup is the strongest yet. Here's what it looks like, along with other revelations from "The Beat Goes On":

No Beatles
Despite persistent rumors and constant Beatles references during the Jobs keynote, "The Beatles" catalog was not made available on iTunes. (Yet.) Sigh.

Grade: F

iPod facts and figures
The domination of iTunes and the iPod is astonishing. According to Apple, the company has distributed over 600 million copies of iTunes and has sold over 3 billion songs, 95 million TV shows, and has provided over 125,000 podcasts to listeners. Astonishing.

Apple has sold over 110 million iPods to date, also astonishing.

Grade: A+

iPod shuffle
Apple added new colors and not much else to the $79 iPod shuffle, which was thoroughly revamped for last year. New colors include red (as in Product[RED]), purple, light blue, and light green, in addition to last year's silver color. Otherwise, the shuffle hasn't changed, up to and including the same 1 GB of storage space. This is mostly OK: The shuffle was fine as-is, but you'd think Apple might have bumped the storage to at least 2 GB.

Grade: B

iPod nano
The best-selling nano is getting quite a bit fatter/wider thanks to a new QVGA 320 x 240 screen (equal to that of last year's iPod with video) that supports video as well as Cover Flow; it also comes with 3 iPod games. While I question the width increase of the new device (coming as it does with a non-updated music-only iPod shuffle), the new nano looks neat. It is all metal (though I doubt anyone was actually asking for that), thinner than before, and appears more rounded on the edges than the too-sharp-edged iPod with video from last year. It sports 24 hours of battery life for audio and 5 hours for video, both excellent. Pricing is reasonable at $149 for a 4 GB version and $199 for 8 GB. The new nano is available in five colors: black, red, gray, blue, and green. They look great overall.

Grade: A

iPod classic
Replacing the old iPod with video (which some people think of simply as "iPod") is the new iPod classic. This player doesn't appear to be particularly exceptional other than the new storage options: It's the same basic size and shape as the previous iPod, but appears to have rounded edges, like the nano. (Assuming that's the case. It may be a photographic trick.) Anyway, the iPod classic is now all-metal (whatever), thinner than before, and comes in 80 GB and 160 GB variants. The 80 GB version gets 30 hours of battery life for audio and 6 hours for video; it costs $250. The 160 GB version gets 40 hours of battery life for audio and 7 hours for video; it costs $350. Both are reasonably priced, though the tiny screen is increasingly uninteresting in the wake of the Zune, iPod touch (see below), and iPhone. As before, the iPod classic comes only in black and white.

Grade: B

iPod touch
Arguably the most impressive introduction of the event and the one countless digital media fans have been clamoring for, the iPod touch is basically the iPhone without any phone features. It features all the iPhone goodness you'd expect, including the multi-touch UI, the Cover Flow views, the icon-based home screen, and landscape video playback.

The iPod touch does more than that, however. It includes integrated 802.11b/g Wi-Fi, like the iPhone, which you can use with its integrated Safari browser, YouTube application (a la iPhone), and... drumroll, please... the new mobile version of iTunes, dubbed iTunes Wi-Fi. Yep, Apple jumped on the obvious train and added that feature so many people were looking for: Buying music over the air. Sadly, you cannot sync over the air via Wi-Fi, which would have really completed the picture. There was also a Starbucks announcement that is barely worth mentioning, given that it will taken until 2009 to completely rollout, assuming it ever happens.

The price is reasonable, but not exceptional, given the capacity: An 8 GB version is $300, while a 16 GB version will set you back $400. Battery life is great, 22 hours for audio and 5 for video, but then you won't be putting much video on this thing with such small amounts of built-in memory.

The only reason this doesn't get an A+ is the storage: Even 16 GB is paltry for a video collection. I honestly believe customers would be OK with a thicker device if they could get an 80 GB or even 160 GB hard drive in there (with the resulting larger battery). Maybe someday that will happen, but this is a wonderful start.

Grade: A-

iPhone
Apple is dropping the 4 GB iPhone and, most astonishingly, dropping the price of the 8 GB version by $200 to a much more reasonable $400. I've often referred to the price point on the iPhone as being exorbitant, but this brings it down to reality. Bravo to Apple for being this aggressive this quickly.

The iPhone also picks up some iPod Touch features, like iTunes Wi-Fi (sweet) and the silly Starbucks application, as expected.

Finally, Apple is adding one of many curiously missing features to the iPhone: Ringtone support. Now, customers can buy song ringtones for $1.98: 99 cents for the ringtone itself and 99 cents for the song. It's not the full iTunes catalog, however, but rather a 500,000 song subset. The new version of iTunes, being released "tonight," will also add a ringtone editor so you can recast nonprotected songs from your existing music collection into ringtones yourself. Neat.

Grade: A

iTunes 7.4/8?
There's a new version of iTunes coming tonight, apparently. We don't know much about it beyond the new ringtones stuff and reverse sync with iTunes Wi-Fi, so there's no point in writing it up quite yet. Stay tuned.

Grade: n/a

Presentation
As is often the case, Steve Jobs loves playing to the home crowd and the Apple friendly people in the audience--about half were Apple employees according to at least one blogger who was there--ate it all up. I don't like the lies--Apple isn't the first to add a Web browser to a portable media player, example--and I don't like the boasting, but there's no denying that Jobs is the master of this domain. Say what you will, but this time, at least, he was right on target. This stuff is excellent.

Grade: A

Overall, this was a solid even exciting event. I'm looking forward to reviewing the new iPods, and iTunes 8.0, if that's what it is. I'm also curious how Microsoft intends to answer this threat with new Zunes, and if that's even possible.

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Zune Price Drop

From the Futility Department over at Zune Insider:
Some of you may have already heard, but tomorrow we’re dropping the suggested retail price for Zune to $199. It’s part of the normal product lifecycle, something we’ve had on the books for months. We just got some research back and customer satisfaction with the 30GB device is really high (around 94%) and we expect even more consumers will now want to discover the Zune experience at the new lower price.
Funny this would come right before an Apple event at which the company introduced its 2007 lineup of iPods. :)

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Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Music: It's better than it sounds on MP3

San Francisco Chronicle:
The artificial audio of MP3s is quickly becoming the primary way people listen to music. Apple already has sold 100 million iPods, and more than a billion MP3 files are traded every month through the Internet.

But the music contained in these computer files represents less than 10 percent of the original music on the CDs. In its journey from CD to MP3 player, the music has been compressed by eliminating data that computer analysis deems redundant, squeezed down until it fits through the Internet pipeline.

When even the full files on the CDs contain less than half the information stored to studio hard drives during recording, these compressed MP3s represent a minuscule fraction of the actual recording. For purists, it's the dark ages of recorded sound.

How much the audio quality is affected by the MP3 process depends on the compression strategy, the encoder used, the playback equipment, computer speed and many other steps along the way. Experts agree, however, that the audio quality of most MP3s is somewhere around FM radio. The best digital audio, even with increased sampling rates and higher bit rates, still falls short of the natural quality of now-obsolete analog tape recording.

How good MP3s sound obviously also depends greatly on the playback system. But most MP3s are heard through cheap computer speakers, plastic iPod docking stations or, worse yet, those audio abominations called earbuds.
I'm always amused when people say that low-quality MP3/WMA/AAC tracks sound just fine. It literally is the audio equivalent of calling a McDonalds Happy Meal delicious. I guess it just depends on what you're used to consuming.

Related: Just because it's digital, doesn't mean it sounds good

Semi-related: I discovered this story through MacSurfer, which is a good (if curiously repetitive) Mac news aggregator site. They were linking to a story on The Inquirer, which is a sad little "The Register"-wannabe site from the UK that, as it turns out, simply reworded a story they had discovered on The Seattle PI. (My guess is they do that a lot.) However, even that story wasn't the original: The PI can apparently republish stories from The San Francisco Chronicle, but of course they don't link to the "original." So I went and looked for it and linked to that here. Sometimes I really wonder about the Internet.

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Dell gets back in the MP3 player game

Fortune:
Dell announced plans yesterday to acquire a private MP3 software company called ZING Systems Inc., an indication that Round Rock is interested in re-entering the MP3 product ring.

In September 2005, Dell unveiled its own player, the DJ Ditty, to compete with the iPod Shuffle –you may not recall because it all happened so quickly. The Ditty was pulled last August, less than a year after its launch. At the time, a spokesman told the Wall Street Journal the company wanted to focus instead on its core products, like PCs and printers.

ZING licenses its technology to Sirius (SIRI) and SanDisk (SNDK) for their MP3 players, and according to the company’s website, its software lets people not only listen to live digital streams but collect songs from them and make playlists.
If this is true--and I have a hard time understanding it if it is--then surely Dell has been inspired by the success of the Zune to plumb their own 0.05 percent of the market while Apple is busy blazing new trails with the iPhone. Or something.

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Thursday, July 05, 2007

Semi-obvious iPhone/iPod futures

I was among the crowd of people clamoring for a phone-less iPhone-like iPod back when Steve Jobs first announced the device at the January 2007 Macworld, and I still think that would be a great idea, especially if it could be fitted with a real hard drive. But while wrestling with some weird sync issues over the weekend, another thought occurred to me, and while I'm sure this is equally obvious, I'll spell it out anyway: Apple should sell an iPod-less iPhone as well.

You might call such a thing the iPhone nano (with apologies to David Letterman and his even more obvious recent spoof of such a device). And here's why I think this would be a killer idea: After I couldn't get the iPhone to sync with my Outlook calendar properly, I decided to nuke from space ("restore" the device in iPhone parlance) and see what the sync experience is like on the Mac. No surprise, it's better. But since I didn't have any music on my Mac at first, my initial sync was just calendar (Google Calendar via iCal) and contacts (Yahoo Mail contacts via Apple's Address Book application). This information takes up almost no space at all on the device. But what you're left with is a stunningly usable phone and personal information manager.

Indeed, once you get rid of most of the storage space--I'm thinking 1 GB would do it for whatever random photos you might take--you can also dispense with a lot of the battery, since that's pretty much only needed for media playback anyway. You could therefore make a phone-only iPhone--the iPhone nano--that was about one-half to two-thirds the size of the existing device, while retaining the same basic proportions. A smaller phone would be highly desirable to a lot of people, methinks.

Meanwhile, a future video iPod that's based on the iPhone could arguably be a bit bigger than the current iPhone, while still losing the phone features (and associated monthly charges). This could become the new high-end iPod, designed primarily for TV, movie, and other video content.

Just a thought.

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Sunday, June 24, 2007

Absolutely stunning Steve Jobs/Apple article

New York Magazine's John Heilemann has written an amazing article about Steve Jobs, timed to the introduction of the iPhone. There's just so much good info here, I can only point out a few bits.

On the iPhone:
The emerging consensus, in fact, is that the [mobile phone makers'] dread is warranted. That Jobs is about to do it again—to unleash another object of overwhelming, consciousness-drenching, culture-shifting desire. That Apple’s past is merely preface to a period of increasing and metastasizing dominance.
On Apple's shaky position a decade ago:
Jobs told friends the company was 90 days away from bankruptcy. [As I've said repeatedly, by the way. --Paul]
On the genius of simplicity:
"He said, ‘We’re going to do just four things,’ and then he drew this grid: laptop, desktop, consumer, business. That was it. And I was, like, ‘Beautiful!’"
On the luck of the success of the iPod:
The initial hopes for the iPod were modest. It was conceived as simply another part of the company’s “digital hub” initiative: an assortment of features (iMovie, iDVD, iPhoto, etc.) intended to make the Mac as mediacentric as possible. At the launch, Jobs touted the iPod’s functionality as a spare disk drive. The notion that it would transform Apple from an also-ran computer outfit into a consumer-electronics powerhouse never occurred to anyone.
On the success of the iTunes Store:
The iTunes Store has ... directly contributed next to nothing to Apple’s bottom line. But Jobs never intended to make a bundle by retailing music. The purpose of the iTunes store was strictly to sell more iPods.
On how iPod and iTunes lock out competition:
The link between the iPod and iTunes is ... designed to limit consumer choice, to foster reluctance among consumers who own iTunes tracks to switch to other devices. It has prompted complaints by European governments to the European Commission—which so far have come to naught.
On why subscription music services make sense, despite Apple's tunnel-vision:
“Right now, the download model is necessary because I want to take music in the car or to the gym. But once we have true mobile broadband, the streaming model is going to take off. Then there’s never really going to be a need to own files at all. It’ll all just be there in the cloud.” As for music discovery, Wilson says, “I’ve never found one single artist or song on iTunes … It’s an online version of Tower Records, only worse.”

MusicNet’s McGlade, whose products compete with iTunes, agrees. “The issue with download purchases is that every time you want to hear a track, you’ve got to make a buying decision,” he says. “I gotta tell you, once you put people on a subscription service, they can’t go back.”
On Gates and Jobs at "D" (and agreeing with me that Gates seemed much more composed than Jobs):
The joint interview was revealing on other levels, too. Whereas Gates came across as entirely at ease, almost avuncular, Jobs was coiled as tight as a spring. Whereas Gates spoke happily about the marks, technological and philanthropic, he would leave on the world, Jobs squirmed at the notion of bequeathal, with its intimations of mortality.
There's so much more in there: The compromise that is the iPhone feature-set, a persistent Google/Apple merger rumor, and so on. Definitely worth the read. Just fascinating stuff.

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Wednesday, June 20, 2007

YouTube Live on Apple TV Today

Apple PR:
Apple announced that YouTube is now live on Apple TV™. Users can download the free software update using Apple TV’s built-in software update feature, and then easily navigate through YouTube’s familiar video browsing categories or search for specific videos. YouTube members can also log-in to their YouTube accounts on Apple TV to view and save their favorite videos.

“iPhone delivers the best YouTube mobile experience by far,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “Now users can enjoy YouTube wherever they are—on their iPhone, on their Mac or on a widescreen TV in their living room with Apple TV.”

To achieve higher video quality, YouTube has begun encoding their videos in the advanced H.264 format. Over 10,000 videos will be available on June 29, and YouTube will be adding more each week until their full catalog of videos is available in the H.264 format this fall.
This applies to the iPhone as well, but given that the Apple TV is here now, I thought it made sense to focus on what we actually have on hand.

And that said, this is good news. I'm a big fan of You Tube, what with being a human being and all, but the quality is just abysmal. I'm curious to see how things improve now that they're using H.264 though. Good stuff.

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Tuesday, June 19, 2007

iPhone

I've written up an iPhone preview for Connected Home and the SuperSite for Windows, but it won't be up for a few days. In the meantime, I'll at least mention that I do plan to get one. This is a recent development, and it actually came out of a discussion I was having with my wife about migrating to Gmail. (We don't usually talk tech as she's "normal," but I thought she could benefit from doing so.) Anyway, I mentioned Gmail interaction with various smart phones and noted how that would be getting better with native Google apps for phones, especially the iPhone. She asked if I was getting one. To that moment, I can honestly say I wasn't planning on doing so at all. And I told her that. But from that second on, I realized that, yeah, I pretty much have to do this. With the full understanding that the lack of a real keyboard and the non-availability of massive amounts of storage will limit its appeal somewhat, yeah. Yeah, I just have to get one. Obviously.

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Thursday, May 31, 2007

Gates vs. Jobs in a battle for the... well, for nothing, actually

So much for the fireworks everyone expected. Bill Gates and Steve Jobs sat down together face-to-face for the first time in years at the "D: All Things Digital" conference and the result was ... nothing particularly interesting, actually. If you're a WSJ subscriber, you can see clips from the meeting and read an article about it. If not, eh. Nothing happened. In fact, the only real jab in the whole thing was at Gil Amelio, the ex-Apple CEO that Jobs ousted a decade ago.

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Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Steve Jobs at D: All Things Digital

Engadget has nice coverage of Steve Jobs' appearance today at D. A couple of observations:

- Jobs describes the new Apple as being three businesses and a "hobby." The businesses are Mac, music, and phone. The hobby, curiously, is Apple TV. This is sort of disingenuous. If the Apple TV fails, Apple can claim it was never a serious effort anyway.

- Jobs got into Mac market share and was reasonably accurate, though he of course rounded up on everything. According to Jobs, the Mac has 3 percent market share worldwide (it's really 2.49 percent), 5-6 percent market share in the US (lower than I would have guessed), 12 percent market share in US notebooks, and "double digit" market share in the US consumer market share, with the caveat that "we can't really calculate the consumer market share." So that last one, presumably, is just a guess.

- Jobs promised big things for the Mac at WWDC 2007, which is in early June. I've spoken to Apple about this show and will soon have an article about the company's interesting push to deal with the Windows developers who are now showing up at the event.

- No new iPods any time soon, despite some stammering from Jobs that "last September" (when the last iPods were released) wasn't all that long ago.

- Jobs again disingenuously claimed that there's no iPod lock-in because "if you look at the total number of iPods and total number of songs sold on iTunes, it's less than 25 per iPod." So consumers are "clearly not getting the majority of their songs from iTunes." That's not what lock-in means, however. Because iTunes is responsible for about 95 percent of all digitally sold music, and that music can only play on Apple's products, there's lock-in. Remember, Microsoft wasn't charged with a monopoly on operating systems. It was charged with a monopoly on operating systems for Intel-based PCs. Apple clearly has a monopoly on digitally sold music. Just as clear, however, is the fact that no law enforcement entity has any interest at all in calling them on that.

- There was much iPhone talk, naturally. I don't care much about the iPhone, however.

- YouTube on Apple TV. Yawn. Yet another extremely low-quality source of video that will look horrible on that HDTV you're using with the Apple TV.

- Jobs proudly noted that there are 300 million "or more" installs of iTunes worldwide, but was then forced to admit something I've been trying to communicate for some time now: "Statistically," as Jobs put it, almost all of those are on Windows. I do give Mossberg some credit for calling Jobs on that quip. "Statistically?" Mossberg retorted. "In reality? In this dimension?" That's a nice way to tear down a meaningless response. On the flip side, I also give Jobs credit for his final comeback: "It's like giving a glass of ice water to somebody in hell." Good one.

- When confronted with Apple's use of non-standard AAC instead of MP3, Jobs let loose with a whopper: "We don't own [AAC]. Anyone can license it, the majority of players out there can play it, and most of the big players out there play AAC." Those last two points are absolutely untrue.

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Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Microsoft doesn't sell 1 million Zunes

I'm not sure what's funnier:

1. The San Francisco Chronicle apparently misquoted Robbie Bach on Sunday to make it seem like Microsoft had already sold 1 million Zunes when, in fact, the company still expects to hit that mark by the end of June.

or...

2. Someone actually listened to the Chronicle podcast with Bach and discovered that discrepancy. I mean, seriously. Has anyone ever listened to this guy talk?

or...

3. A couple of guys email me asking/demanding me to "retract" my original post about this event. You know, as if I had made it up or not done due diligence for a blog posting. Sigh.

Anyway. In the original Chronicle article, Bach is quoted quite clearly as saying, "We've sold a little over a million Zunes." Thus this post. But on the podcast, he says, "When we finish our fiscal year in June we'll have sold a little over a million Zunes, so we feel very good about that." I wonder if he said both, separately. Or if the podcast is the only conversation they had. If it's the latter, the Chronicle needs some help. If it's the former, Bach needs some help. Actually, based on the performance of the Microsoft division he oversees, Bach does indeed need some help.

Overall, this isn't a huge issue, as the end of June is just a month away. But the original report made it seem like Microsoft had accomplished its goal ahead of schedule. Apparently, that's not the case.

BTW: Apple only sold about 500,000 iPods in its first six months. Granted, it's a different era now. But there's this notion that the iPod has always sold well, and that wasn't the case at all in its first year or so on the market.

Related: Microsoft On Track to Sell 1 Million Zunes

Update: Apparently, Business 2.0 broke this story earlier today.

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Monday, May 28, 2007

Microsoft sells 1 million Zunes

So there you go. It may be the laughing stock of the Apple-loving blogosphere, but the Zune is apparently not doing all that horribly: Microsoft president Robbie Back claims in a San Francisco Chronicle interview that the company has already sold one million Zune devices:
"We're still about nine months [actually, it's closer to 6 months --Paul] into having Zune in the marketplace. We're very pleased with the progress. We've sold a little over a million Zunes. In the category we're in, the hard-disk-based category, we've got about 10 percent market share. It's a good start. It's not an overwhelming start. I'm not going to pretend it's some gigantic move."
Those with decent memories will recall that Microsoft announced up front that their goal with Zune was to sell one million units by the end of its fiscal year, which happens on June 30, 2007. So with a month to spare, they've done just that. Not too shabby.

Of course, Apple sells several million iPods a quarter, so there's still some ground to make up. But still. Not too shabby.

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Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Microsoft kills off another iPod Killer

File this under "Ignorant headlines, Part 1," since the Portable Media Centers predate the iPod with video and never directly competed with the iPod, given the size of the screen and the heft. (The first PMCs shipped in September 2004, while the first iPod with video shipped a full year later in October 2005.) Anyway:
Portable Media Center devices - remmber [sic] them? Slightly less cumbersome versions of fully fledged Media Center PCs - are being officially killed off.
Except that PMCs were never "slightly less cumbersome versions of Media Center PCs." I hope the author of this article doesn't get paid for this claptrap. PMCs were portable media players that utilized a Media Center-like user interface and provided access to all of Media Center's content, including recorded TV shows. Something, by the way, you still can't get via Apple without paying for each and every show. Assuming the show you want is on iTunes, that is. You get the idea.

OK, seriously, I'm going to get through this latest example of blatant anti-Microsoft bias. I really am.
Microsoft's David Bono [confirmed that] PMCs are going the way of the dodo:

"We have decided to take what we have learned from our investments in Portable Media Center and focus our product and marketing resources on building media experiences on connected Windows Mobile powered devices....

With the re-investment of resources in media experiences on connected Windows Mobile powered devices, Portable Media Center 2.0 is the last version of our Portable Media Center software under the Windows Mobile brand. We do not plan any future Portable Media Center software upgrades or marketing activities."
Honestly, Microsoft never really advanced the state of the art with the PMC after the initial release. Presumably a future Zune model (and/or Windows Mobile-based devices, as noted) will take up the slack.

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Microsoft fixes iPod bug on Vista

So you could look at this two ways, I guess. Either Microsoft is doing the right thing and working with a partner/"coop-etitor" and doing the right thing for customers. Or you could be ignorant and find a way to complain about Microsoft regardless of the good they're doing here. I choose the former: This is the right thing to do, and it should be applauded by users:
Today we're publishing at the Microsoft Download Center a recommended final compatibility update for users of Windows Vista and the Apple iPod; this same update will be automatically available via Windows Update on Tuesday 22 May. The release is for users worldwide and works with the latest version of Apple iTunes to correct an issue that caused some iPods to become corrupted when ejecting them using Windows Explorer or the "Safely Remove Hardware" function in the System Tray.

The long and short of it is this: Apple and Windows have partnered together to ensure a great experience in using Windows Vista with iTunes and the iPod, and both companies recommend you download this update.
Of course, this is Microsoft. So instead of calling this something simple like "the iPod Vista fix," it's called The Safely Remove Hardware feature and the Windows Explorer "Eject" command do not work correctly with an Apple iPod that is connected to a Windows Vista-based computer. Sigh.

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Friday, May 04, 2007

Microsoft Poised to Rule Entertainment, Devices World

This might come as a shock to the rest of the world (or what I call "the real world"), since there it seems like Apple, not Microsoft, is pretty much dominating. But the exciting Robbie Bach of Microsoft has something to say about that, thank you very much:
There are ways to make money on an Xbox. Generally it's not on the hardware itself; we'll probably be gross margin neutral on that over the life cycle of the product and try to break even on that.

[Regarding the Zune,] people always want to say, gosh, Apple has such a big lead, what are you going to do, how do you possibly compete with that, and why would you bother? And part of my response is, you know, they've sold 100 million devices. So, let's just do some math. You and I can do this. How many people are there in the world? Five, six billion ... every single one of them has a music experience ... [some math ensues] ... you have a target audience of a 1.5 billion people. Not everyone is going to want a digital device; we can go through the yak-yak around that. But the audience is huge, and we are really early in what's going to happen in the music space. And the music industry is … in the process of reinventing itself.

And so for us, A) there's a big market; B) we think the opportunity is just beginning; and C) if you want to be in what we call connected entertainment, you have to be able to connect movies and video with music, with games, with communications technology to be able to do that. You can't not have a player.

So, early phases of this, we're about 10 percent market share in the category we're in, which is the hard disk. That's a good first step. Like Xbox was before it, the first step is what it is, it's nice, it's not perfect. People have commentary and questions and things we can improve, and we would say, yep, you're right. And we're not stupid, we see all those things, and we're good developers, and we know what we need to do. And you're going to see the product get better and better and better. You're going to see us be relentless in marketing. And you're going to see us expand into other parts of the category beyond the hard disk space. And I think we can be successful; I think we can build a nice business.
Anyone else want a courtesy flush with their music experience? Geesh. I just love marketing talk.
[On communities,] Zune today probably isn't a great example in the sense that community is part of the process for Zune that we believe in, and we haven't...really created the community environment.
Welcome to the social.
[Regarding consumer electronics,] From a balanced perspective there are categories where we're not going to do devices. We don't do phones. We don't have plans to do phones ... There are other places like Zune where because of Apple's success, and frankly because of the uneven experience we were able to deliver just by being the platform provider, we decided we had to do it ourselves. I have no desire to do hardware ... Xbox is the hardest piece of consumer electronics hardware to produce in the world, no debate. It just taxes way more of anything you could possibly want to do. Zune technically speaking is dramatically easier. Almost any other device you could describe to me would be dramatically easier than producing what we did in Xbox.

And so by becoming experts at doing that, we are building core skill sets that we can leverage other places if we think the business requires it.

I believe people are going to want an entertainment experience that's always connected regardless of the device and the location they're in. If I want to do that, I've got to be great at video, I've got to be great in music, I've got to be great in games, and I have to be great at communications. Those are the building blocks.
Microsoft's approach to this stuff is so typical, it's hard to remember that these are the guys who were supposed to be so different from the rest of the company. It's OK to have a vision, I guess. But Microsoft thinks in terms of platforms, not great products. Apple does it the reverse way: Ship something drool-worthy and watch people snatch it up. Do it again. And again. Suddenly, there's a platform sitting there. Microsoft spends so much time plotting platforms that by the time the vision is complete, the world has already moved on. The old way of doing things doesn't work any more. Isn't that why they copied Apple with the Zune in the first place?

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Friday, April 27, 2007

Looking back on the Rolling Stone interview with Steve Jobs

Rolling Stone is a surprisingly good magazine, which I know because I've been mysteriously receiving it this year despite having never ordered or paid for it. (I assume it was a gift.) Anyway, three years ago they interviewed Steve Jobs. Here are some key excerpts, which are interesting today given how things turned out.

Regarding DRM:
When we first went to talk to these record companies ... we said: None of this technology that you're talking about's gonna work. We have Ph.D.'s here, that know the stuff cold, and we don't believe it's possible to protect digital content.
Apple went on to make a fairly unspectacular DRM called FairPlay. However, despite its technical inferiority to Windows Media DRM, FairPlay has clearly won out in the market, thanks to the success of the iTunes Store and the iPod. Game, set, match.

Regarding subscription music services:
These [music subscription] services that are out there now are going to fail.Here's why: People don't want to buy their music as a subscription. They bought 45's; then they bought LP's; then they bought cassettes; then they bought 8-tracks; then they bought CD's. They're going to want to buy downloads. People want to own their music. You don't want to rent your music -- and then, one day, if you stop paying, all your music goes away.

And, you know, at 10 bucks a month, that's $120 a year. That's $1,200 a decade. That's a lot of money for me to listen to the songs I love. It's cheaper to buy, and that's what they're gonna want to do.
I still feel that subscription music services are a great idea, because people's musical tastes change over time, and if you're active buying music, there's no better way to find new music. Indeed, if Apple ever did add a subscription option to iTunes, it'd be a huge success, no doubt about it. Part of the problem with today's services is that they're too expensive. $15 a month is just way too much.

Regarding digital music sales and success:
There are approximately 800 million CD's sold in the U.S. a year, I believe. That's about 10 billion tracks, right? About 10 billion tracks in the U.S. -- sold legally. Our next milestones are to get up to 100 million tracks a year, then a quarter a billion, and then half a billion, and then a billion. And that's gonna take a little bit of time.
Certainly, Apple is on the way. What hasn't happened is that digital music has yet to make up for the drop in traditional CD sales.

Regarding digital movie sales:
Movies are very different than music. First of all, they're a hundred times larger. There's only been one way to buy your music -- that's on a CD. Look at the ways there are to legally buy a movie -- you can see it at the theater, you can buy it on home video, you can buy on DVD. But you can also rent it at Blockbuster or Netflix. You can watch it on pay-per-view. You can also watch it on cable or network TV. There are a lot of ways to legally get a movie. There was only one way to legally get music. That's a really big difference. The distribution is much more highly evolved in the movie industry than it ever was in the music industry

People who just make the leap that movies are next are wrong.
And yet, Apple jumped right into movie (and TV) sales, right after music. Though Apple is no doubt now the most popular online service for movies, it's had a slow start. The problem is, unlike music, most people don't want to watch most movies more than once. $10 to $15 for a standard definition digital movie is too much money.

Regarding what happens when Microsoft copies the iPod:
There are a lot of examples of people offering services, Internet-based services, that have done quite well [against Microsoft].

One of the reasons Apple was able to do what we did was because we are perceived by the music industry as the most creative technology company. And now we've created this music store, which I think is nontrivial to copy. I mean, to say that Microsoft can just decide to copy it, and copy it in six months -- that's a big statement. It may not be so easy.
And sure enough, Microsoft did copy iTunes, first with MSN Music, then with URGE, and then completely with Zune Marketplace. It took quite a bit of time, and Microsoft has certainly not made much of a dent in the iTunes armor so far. I guess I don't expect them to.

Thanks Eddis.

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Thursday, April 26, 2007

Apple Surges on Heady Earnings, Growth

Me, in WinInfo:
Apple posted its latest quarterly earnings on Wednesday, and results surpassed even the most optimistic expectations. Apple profits jumped 88 percent in the quarter to $770 million on revenues of $5.26 billion, the company said. Sales of iPod portable media players rose 24 percent in the quarter to 10.5 million units, while sales of Macintosh computer systems rose even higher, 36 percent, to 1.5 million units.

Apple's strong performance comes during a time in which it has not shipped major updates to either of its two product lines. Apple will bolster its iPod line with the iPod sometime in June, and the company expects to ship the next update to the Mac operating system software in October. Presumably, Apple will refresh its other Mac and iPod hardware throughout the year as well.

While the iPod continues to dominate the digital music world, Apple's Mac has seen only limited real world gains, despite the strong growth.

Still, there's a growing consensus that Apple's successes with the Mac are not so easily characterized. Though the Mac's market share remains tiny, Macs are indeed selling well and generating plenty of profits for Apple. Presumably, the company can continue as a specialty PC maker whose products are loved for their design aesthetics, performance, and security. And though there are indications that Apple is preoccupied with its consumer electronics products, the Mac market remains both viable and desirable.

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Microsoft Touts Zune Successes

Some unintentional comedy courtesy of Microsoft. Me, in WinInfo:
Microsoft announced late Wednesday that its Zune digital media player is "holding steady" and continues to be the number two selling hard drive-based portable media player.

According to NPD data cited by Microsoft, the Zune controlled 9.1 percent of the hard drive-based portable media player market in March, second only to Apple's iPod, which presumably controlled most of the other 90 percent. To bolster sales, Microsoft is adding a "baby pink" Zune model alongside the previous black, white, and brown models. The pink Zune will become widely available in May, Microsoft says.
Apparently, Microsoft is employing the strategy used by Steve Jobs while at NeXT: Just point at your product and declare that it's successful. Eventually, that spin will just become truth and then history, you know, right after someone simply adds it to Wikipedia.

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Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Apple Reports Second Quarter Results

Apple PR:
Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2007 second quarter ended March 31, 2007. The Company posted revenue of $5.26 billion and net quarterly profit of $770 million, or $.87 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $4.36 billion and net quarterly profit of $410 million, or $.47 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 35.1 percent, up from 29.8 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 43 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

Apple shipped 1,517,000 Macintosh computers and 10,549,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 36 percent growth in Macs and 24 percent growth in iPods over the year-ago quarter.

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Monday, April 23, 2007

Zune and Mac on opposite ends of the dip

Ex-Apple evangelist Guy Kawasaki interviews "Big Dip" author Seth Godin. The whole thing is good, but the following two questions are of particular interest to readers of this blog, and I think I agree with both answers:
Question: Should Microsoft quit the MP3 player market?

Answer: I thought they already did. They’re spending a lot of money, but they’re on a dead end. They always were. They saw the Dip, but instead of embracing it by completely reinventing what it meant to be an MP3 player, they just played it safe and made a piece of me-too.

When you copy something that’s already on the other side of the Dip, you’ve already lost. Microsoft “quit” the MP3 player market when they identified the wrong Dip. They picked the obvious, “safe” one—the one committees of people could live with, but one that is so big and so steep that even Microsoft doesn’t have the money to get through it.

Microsoft has a long history of sticking through Dips, and a long history of quitting dead ends. I have no idea what they’re thinking when it comes to the Zune, but it’s a dead end, through and through.

Question: Should Apple quit the personal computer market?

Answer: Apple has already crossed that Dip, big time. Not the “personal computer Dip” but the Dip of “style-conscious, designer’s, multimedia, student, family computer.” They’re the best in the world at that. They own it. They profit from it. Sure, if Steve hadn’t been arrogant, they could have been best in the world at a much bigger, much juicier market. But they’re not. Once they deal with that—and I think they mostly have—then they can erect a wall behind them, a bigger dip, one that prevents others from following. Over time, personal computers become a profitless commodity while Apple’s market just gets sexier, more fun, and more profitable.
Thanks Charles.

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Monday, April 09, 2007

100 Million iPods Sold: Let's Look to the Next 100 Million

Apple celebrates an amazing milestone:
Apple today announced that the 100 millionth iPod has been sold, making the iPod the fastest selling music player in history. The first iPod was sold five and a half years ago, in November 2001, and since then Apple has introduced more than 10 new iPod models, including five generations of iPod, two generations of iPod mini, two generations of iPod nano and two generations of iPod shuffle. Along with iTunes and the iTunes online music store, the iPod has transformed how tens of millions of music lovers acquire, manage and listen to their music.

The iPod has also sparked an unprecedented ecosystem of over 4,000 accessories made specifically for the iPod that range from fashionable cases to speaker systems, and more than 70 percent of 2007-model US automobiles currently offer iPod connectivity.

Every iPod features seamless integration with iTunes 7. The iTunes Store features the world’s largest catalog with over five million songs, 350 television shows and over 400 movies. The iTunes Store has sold over 2.5 billion songs, 50 million TV shows and over 1.3 million movies, making it the world’s most popular online music, TV and movie store.
The market penetration of the iPod, combined with its support ecosystem of hardware add-ons, is a tech success story unlike few others. Only Windows, arguably, or the Sony PS2 during its several-years-long moment in the sun, saw such success. Absolutely astonishing.

Now, it's time to look ahead. Like many, I'm eager to see an iPhone-like video iPod, preferrably with a user-removable battery. I'd like to see more and better movie content on the iTunes Store, with lower-cost options to rent (and not own) content I'll only want to watch once. I want to see Closed Captioning and subtitle support on all TV and movie content, so my son and other hearing-impaired users can finally utilize this incredible service. I'd like an Apple TV that will let me browse and buy iTunes content from the couch, and utilize DVR functionality so I can watch live and recorded TV.

Put simply, there's still a lot of work to do. I'm excited for the future.

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Thursday, April 05, 2007

About audio codecs (Updated)

In the wake of Apple's decision to provide DRM-free versions of AAC song files via iTunes, there's been a lot of renewed interest in audio codecs, their costs, and how they're licensed. Not surprisingly, my go-to guy for this kind of information, Dave Caulton, has been documenting this stuff on his Zunester blog. I'd like to summarize that information, and some other related details, here.

First, the codecs. With due respect to the Ogg crowd, there are really only three codecs that matter today: MP3 (or as I call it, The One True Format), WMA (Windows Media Audio), and AAC (Advanced Audio Codec). Microsoft, of course, created and licenses WMA. Apple utilizes (but did not create) AAC.

Contrary to popular belief, MP3 is not free, but because it is so pervasive (or as Dave notes, what we might call the JPEG of audio formats), all audio devices and software can work with this format. WMA is supported by far more device and software types than AAC, due to its very low licensing costs (see below), but AAC is arguably more pervasive now from a numbers standpoint, due to the success of the iPod and iTunes, both of which are AAC-compatible.

Regarding licensing costs, WMA is the least expensive of the three, though that's become increasingly irrelevant. The licensing fee for WMA is just 10 cents per unit, but there is a maximum cost of just $400,000. Thrifty.

MP3 is in the middle, from a cost perspective. The MP3 licensing cost for portable devices is 75 cents per device.

AAC is the most expensive, at least for low-volume licensees, which explains why you see so few AAC-compatible devices. The cost structure is tiered as followed: For devices that sell less than 400,000 units per year, the cost is $1.00 per unit. At 400,001 to 2 million units, the cost is 74 cents per unit. Over 2 million units, the cost is less expensive. (Anyone have a number?)

Update: A reader ("yawn" by name) provided this link to Via's AAC licensing fees. Not surprisingly, it's tiered and confusing. (As opposed to tired and confusing, I guess.)

Licensing cost comparison:

250,000 units
WMA: $25,000
MP3: $187,500
AAC: $250,000

500,000 units
WMA: $50,000
MP3: $375,000
AAC: $370,000

1,000,000 units
WMA: $100,000
MP3: $750,000
AAC: $740,000

But wait, there's more: Dave also notes that MP3 actually comes with a content distribution fee as well, which is sort of amazing (in a bad way):
The Thompson site says you pay 2% of revenues from a service - or $0.02/song - to use mp3 in a service. The last time I saw a content distribution fee, it was on mpeg-4 part 2, and it pretty much killed that standard. Thankfully, in h.264 mpeg dropped that requirement for free distribution.
From a quality perspective, both AAC and WMA offer dramatic compression benefits over MP3. However, because of MP3's pervasiveness and the low cost of storage, this has never really translated into much of an issue for users. AAC and WMA offer roughly equivalent quality at the same bit-rates.

Windows Media DRM is the most widely licensed DRM scheme, from a number of licensees perspective. Apple does not license its FairPlay DRM scheme, but since the iPod and iTunes are so popular, it is arguably the most widely-used DRM scheme today (from a digital file format perspective). Comparing DRM licensing fees is thus pointless, as you couldn't license FairPlay if you wanted to. (There's been one exception, of course: Motorola's RAZR iTunes-compatible phones.)

Finally, Apple's decision to offer 256 Kbps AAC files via iTunes does not mean that all DRM-free songs sold in the coming years and months will be in AAC format. Other services will be able to offer these songs in other formats, including DRM-free MP3 and WMA, and no doubt will. So while I applaud Apple for offering DRM-free songs, I will likely look elsewhere for this music, not because of quality issues (256 Kbps AAC is excellent) but because of compatibility issues: As a Media Center user, especially, and someone who wants to keep my options open going forward, I will always seek out MP3 when possible. When it's not possible, I purchase from high-quality services, burn to CD, and re-rip back to the PC in MP3 format. I will now be able to do this with Apple's 256 Kbps AAC songs. It's not possible with the current 128 Kbps files, because of the resulting unacceptable loss in quality that occurs during the conversion process.

Update: A number of readers point out that iTunes can actually convert AAC files to MP3 (and vice versa). What it does is use the format you set up in the application's Import format settings. This is obviously better than burning and re-ripping, so if this works with Apple's DRM-less AAC files, well, bravo: I'll be all over that.

So I'm expecting some pushback. Invariably, people get agitated by the fine points of any discussion like this. I'm interested in keeping this accurate, but I'm not interested in your religious beliefs (aka "but AAC is a million times more efficient than WMA"). If you have a valuable and accurate correction to make, I'm listening.

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[ Posted at 10:20 AM | Permalink ]

 

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Recording Industry is the Culprit, EU Says

Me, in WinInfo:
A day after revealing that it had sent a statement of objections to Apple and the four largest record companies, European Union (EU) antitrust regulators said that the recording industry was the real target of its charges. The EU has alleged that the recording industry and Apple are engaged in unfair pricing of songs sold via Apple's iTunes Store.

"This is an arrangement imposed on Apple by the record companies," an EU spokesperson said Tuesday, agreeing with comments made by Apple spokespeople a day earlier. "The main focus of our attention is the major record companies."
I have to admit, when Apple immediately fingered the recording industry yesterday, I found that a tad off, given that they're partners and so forth. But clearly the EU agrees. My guess is we're going to see standardized pricing across the EU shortly.

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[ Posted at 9:53 AM | Permalink ]

 

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

EU Reveals Apple Antitrust Investigation

Me, in WinInfo:
Today, the European Union (EU) announced it was investigating Apple for antitrust violations related to the pricing of music sold via its iTunes Store service. The European Commission (EC) has sent a statement of objections to Apple, spelling out how the company and the four major recording companies who supply it with music are violating EU antitrust laws.

At issue is the way Apple charges different prices in iTunes Store for the same content in different countries. This, the EU says, unfairly penalizes those consumers in countries where the content is more expensive.
My take on this is simple: This is no big deal. If the EU were to investigate Apple's tying of the iPod and iTunes and its effect on the company both acquiring and maintaining a monopoly in the digital music space--which, frankly, you could make a case for--then we'd have a Microsoft-style legal mess on our hands. But this does seem to be the record companies' problem, not Apple's.

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[ Posted at 10:40 AM | Permalink ]

 

Monday, April 02, 2007

More than you ever wanted to know about audio formats

Thanks to David Caulton for reminding the world that, no, AAC is not an open standard:
Thought I'd lay out some fundamental facts about a few audio formats - some comments show some common misperceptions.

* Mp3 – the jpeg of digital music. Supported by everyone, everywhere. Mediocre compression efficiency, but utterly dominant in personal libraries because users can simply rip to a higher bitrate. Licensable by anyone for a low fee. Universal compatibility is mp3’s key feature.

* AAC – designed for MPEG, by MPEG. Largely associated with Apple at this point, AAC was designed by a licensing body, complete with patent pool, etc.. Licensable by anyone for a (relatively pricey) fee from MPEG-LA. High compression efficiency. Compatibility is fine – as long as you buy Apple products.

* WMA – Microsoft’s audio format. Adopted by most mp3 player skus (but not by most mp3 player units, thanks to the iPod..). Freely licensable for a low fee. Also associated with WMDRM, which is supported by playsforsure devices. High compression efficiency, good compatibility story, but not as good as mp3’s.

* Ogg, FLAC, etc… - Open source codecs. Generally good compression efficiency, but very low support from services and devices. To use these is to enter untested legal waters, but they’re very interesting, and nobody is asking for money for them...yet.
I'd add that the DRM-protected versions of AAC (Apple) and WMA (everyone else) are essentially separate formats from a compatibility standpoint. That is, just because a device or piece of software supports AAC doesn't mean that it also supports Fairplay-enhanced protected AAC (from iTunes).

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[ Posted at 6:17 PM | Permalink ]

 

EMI Drops DRM, iTunes First to Sign On

Me, in WinInfo:
Music giant EMI this morning announced that it would be releasing its entire catalog without digital rights management (DRM) restrictions, the first of the four largest music companies to do so. In addition, EMI announced that Apple's iTunes would be the first online music service to sell these unrestricted files starting in May.

Apple CEO Steve Jobs said Monday that the DRM-free versions of individual songs will offer twice the quality of the DRM-restricted versions, meaning that they will be encoded using the 256 Kbps AAC audio format, compared to 128 Kbps for the original versions. (In a bit of showmanship, Jobs claimed that the 128 Kbps files already offered "the best audio quality" offered by any mainstream digital music service, which is demonstrably untrue: All Windows Media-based online services already offer dramatically higher quality music files than does Apple.) The new songs will cost $1.29 in the US, compared to 99 cents for the restricted versions.

In a nice nod toward users, Apple will also allow its customers to upgrade any existing EMI song purchases to the new unrestricted format for 30 cents per song.
Related: Apple Unveils Higher Quality DRM-Free Music on the iTunes Store

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[ Posted at 8:48 AM | Permalink ]

 

Thursday, March 29, 2007

Apple TV hacks hackers

If this is true, Apple has just caused my rethinking of Apple TV to be quite temporary:
We thought it was too good to be true. Mysterious goings-on have put an end to happy hackers' tinkering with Apple TV.

Just days after intrepid telly addicts ripped open Apple TV's innards to install larger drives and extra file support, the guys at Tutorial Ninjas a reporting they've had their boxes remotely reset to remove any additional features they've shoehorned in.

According to their website, the Ninja's awoke to find their freshly hacked TV boxes had several features disabled overnight ... Apple TV is repairing itself overnight using a scheduled reset tool, known as a 'chronjob.'
Sigh.

Well, that's a shame. After writing my Apple TV review and being, frankly, unimpressed by the device, the quick rise in Apple TV hacks had me believing, briefly, that Apple actually had a master plan with the Apple TV: Slip a tiny OS X-based box into the world's living rooms and let the hackers go nuts. Overnight, this device would become so much more useful because an amazing ecosystem would arise around it.

Too bad it's not true. As it stands, Apple TV is what I said it was originally: An overpriced way to to get iTunes video content into your den. And it's unclear that there's a huge market for that, especially when you consider the lack of content on Apple's service. My guess is that this is all about making the Apple TV appear "safe" to content makers.

Related: Apple vs Apple TV Mod’rs

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[ Posted at 11:19 AM | Permalink ]

 

Apple Offers Album Discounts

Me, in WinInfo:
After arguing for years that the success of its iTunes Store rests on low, standardized pricing, Apple on Wednesday unveiled a new feature of the online service, called Complete My Album, that was directly requested by the music industry. Users who purchase individual songs on iTunes can now buy the rest of the album via the service for a discounted price.

Previously, iTunes customers who purchased individual tracks from an album were not credited for those purchases if they later went back and purchased the entire album, meaning they were effectively charged for certain songs twice. Now, customers will receive a 99 cent credit for each song they purchased from an album when they later go back and purchase the full album.
Related: The Album, a Commodity in Disfavor (NYT):
The industry is straining to shore up the album as long as possible, in part by prodding listeners who buy one song to purchase the rest of a collection. Apple, in consultation with several labels, has been planning to offer iTunes users credit for songs they have already purchased if they then choose to buy the associated album in a certain period of time, according to people involved in the negotiations. (Under Apple’s current practice, customers who buy a song and then the related album effectively pay for the song twice).

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[ Posted at 10:38 AM | Permalink ]

 

Microsoft Updates Zune, Cites Ongoing Successes

Me, in WinInfo:
Microsoft noted this week that Zune is maintaining its number two position in the hard disk-based MP3 player market. This data, which comes from market researchers at NPD, shows that Zune accounted for 8.7 percent of the market in February. It's unclear if this number represents retail sales only, or whether it is worldwide or US-only.

"We're pleased that Zune has been able to have such a significant impact on the market in such a relatively short time and look forward to the interest that our next wave of advertising is sure to drive in the coming month," says Zune Marketing Director Jason Reindorp. Of course, Zune is fighting an uphill battle against Apple, which commands most of the remaining 90+ percent of the market in which Zune now competes. Microsoft is expected to release new Zune models in various form factors as well as further software updates over the next year.

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[ Posted at 10:36 AM | Permalink ]

 

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Apple TV Hard Drive Upgrade Tutorial

Apple TV Hacks:
Here it is, a step by step tutorial on upgrading your Apple TV harddrive.

You can do this via the terminal, or by using some applications (which add $100 to the cost of the process).

What you need:

Hex-bit screwdriver
2.5? hard drive (we used a Western Digital 120 GB WD1200VE drive)
Wiebetech Forensic DriveDock (optional, but recommended) or any 2.5? to Firewire bridge
Subrosasoft’s CopyCatX ($49), or be comfy with the terminal
Coriolis’s iPartition ($45), or use the Apple Factory Restore

[and an Intel-based Mac].
This and the numerous other Apple TV hacks that are appearing are clearly a huge differentiator for the device, though they don't make up for its shortcomings, at least not yet. Apple had to know this would be part of the appeal of the Apple TV. Good stuff.

"Hard drive" is not one word, by the way. :)

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[ Posted at 10:45 AM | Permalink ]

 

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Paul Thurrott's Apple TV review... (Part 2)

I guess I should respond to the other mistakes in John Malloy's scathing attack on my Apple TV review too. It won't be hard:
Now Paul, you are just being naughty - the retail price of the XBOX is 100 bucks more for the version without the hard drive ($399) and a good 200 bucks more for the version with the 20 gig drive ($499).
Actually, the Xbox 360 is $299, the same price as the Apple TV. This hard drive-less version works just fine as a Media Center Extender, as I wrote. I know this because I've got one in my den right now, and it's my family's sole interface to TV content. You can spend $399 (not $499) on the premium version of the console (with hard drive) if you want, but it's not necessary for media sharing or Media Center Extender use.
Also as a media centre the XBOX is an enormous PC with big BOY connections and is as loud as can be imagined.
The Xbox is absolutely louder than the Apple TV, but I mentioned that. However, when using the Media Center Extender feature, it's much quieter than when you're playing games. And unlike the Apple TV, it can perform a variety of useful functions like playing DVD movies, playing HD-DVD movies with an optional $200 add-on, accessing online movie services like MovieLink without having to get up and go back to the PC or Mac in your home office, access its own online TV show and movie service (again, without having to leave the couch), and so on. Of course, I mention that all in my review. Yeah, it's louder.

And that's about it. To summarize:

- John says that you can't expect Paul Thurrott of SuperSite for Windows fame to write fair reviews of Apple products, despite much evidence to the contrary.

- The base Xbox 360 is the same price as the Apple TV but provides much, much more value, despite John's assertions and price mistakes designed to make Apple's product look cheaper.

- John's right: The Xbox 360 is louder than the Apple TV. I'd add that the Apple TV runs quite hot (I also mentioned this in my review), and is, in fact, too hot to touch after being in use for a while. This is a concern but, I felt, with no proof there was no reason to believe it will result in unreliability issues. Time will tell.

- For whatever it's worth, the Xbox comes with cables to connect to a TV, unlike Apple TV, which comes with no cables. The connections you make, however, will ultimately be the same or similar for each device.

Wow, I really am unreasonable.

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[ Posted at 11:55 AM | Permalink ]

 

Paul Thurrott's Apple TV review...

John Molloy of ZDNet refuses to do ten minutes of research:
Paul Thurrott does his expected hatchet job on Apple TV. We can't have the SuperSite for Windows being too Apple friendly.
No, that wouldn't do, now, would it?

So what do my last five Apple reviews on the SuperSite for Windows really look like? Let's check:

Apple iPod shuffle 2G Review (2006-11-04 - FIVE STARS out of FIVE
Conclusion: "Well, they've done it again. Apple's new iPod shuffle is a wonder of size, weight, and usability, and the perfect companion for music lovers who don't want their portable audio player to get in the way."

Apple iPod with video (5G, Late 2006) Review (2006-09-27) - FIVE STARS out of FIVE
Conclusion: "The latest iPod continues Apple's tradition of excellence and remains, as before, the standard by which all other portable media players are measured. This is the best iPod yet. And you know you want one."

Apple iPod nano 2G Review (2006-09-22) - FIVE STARS out of FIVE
Conclusion: "The second generation iPod nano is the best small-sized portable media player on the market today, and it builds on the excellence of its predecessor by fixing the scratching problem that marred previous versions while improving the battery life, providing a rainbow selection of colors from which to choose, and offering a lower price. Is the iPod nano perfect? Nothing ever is, but the nano comes as close as is imaginable given its small form factor."

Apple iTunes 7 Review (2006-09-21) - FOUR STARS out of FIVE
Conclusion: "Apple's iTunes 7 is the best version of iTunes yet and is, without question, the finest media player on any platform, even when you factor in the problems that are currently dogging the Windows version."

Apple Boot Camp Review (2006-04-07) - FOUR STARS out of FIVE
Conclusion: "While Boot Camp isn't perfect, it's still a semi-miraculous solution that lets you dual boot between Mac OS X and Windows XP on an Intel-based Mac. That, folks, is what's known as the best of both worlds in these parts, and I'm personally very excited at the prospect of, or at the opportunity to, purchase Apple notebooks and desktops in the future."

Yeah, I'm dead set against Apple, ain't I? One might logically wonder who's really biased here: Me, or John.

One might also wonder if my Apple TV review is simply an accurate portrayal of my opinion of the device which, again, I feel is pretty limited. Sorry if that offends you, but I think my past five Apple reviews show that I have no problem heaping the praise on Apple when it's deserved.

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[ Posted at 11:43 AM |